Ravens 13-4

This is potentially the best defense in the AFC, that matters. In a conference built on the passing game the Ravens have done an excellent job getting coverage players to match with the best attacking weapons in the league. Adding Marcus Williams allows you to drop eight into coverage and adapt the strategy that allowed the Bengals to beat the Chiefs in the AFC title game last year. The questions will sit on offense, but I’ve seen enough of Lamar Jackson’s career to say the following: as long as the dynamic playmaker is healthy the offense will be fine. Great offense, paired with great defense brings you a team ready to chase a top seed in the AFC. The Ravens are just a good team and a good organization and it’s smart to pick them as a division winner in mid-July.

Bengals 12-5

The Bengals could also run away and win the AFC North. I just want to put that out there, but they have more questions than the Ravens do. Will the offensive line revamp pay off? Will the receiving core stay healthy, there isn’t much behind the starters? Will Jesse Bates play? If he doesn’t the defense and specifically the secondary have a leadership gap to fill, even though it’s a pretty deep group at the moment. The team will be in the playoff though, they have Joe Burrow. He didn’t play like a top five QB all year long but through the last two months, you could make a serious argument he was a top-three NFL QB. Burrow will once again be a leading contributor, when you have a QB that can play at the level he does that’s good for nine to ten wins on its own. The Bengals are contenders, no way around it, but the conference is better, no guarantee they’re a Super Bowl team again.

Browns 8-9

They are the toughest team to analyze in the NFL. We still don’t know how long the Deshaun Watson suspension will be, and we don’t know if the offense will be effective without Watson. My guess is it won’t be but credit where credit is due, Kevin Stefanski is still a good NFL head coach. I would expect the Browns to start slow but find a stride late in the year, and with Watson be the team that dashes some playoff hopes in the AFC. The defensive roster and the running game are good enough to make this roster competitive every week no matter who the starting QB is. The Brown’s year to go for glory will be 2023, 2022 is about building blocks and looking the part plus finding out what they need to swing at in free agency next year to have a chance to win the Lombardi trophy.

Steelers 7-10

My approach to the Steelers roster is as follows: Hype up the roster in late July and early August. This is a tried and true method, aside from some questions on the defensive line after Stephon Tuitt retired, the defense looks solid once again save for some questions on who might play the Nickel. On that defensive line, Chris Wormley seems like the likely replacement for Tuitt who is now retired. The second prong of my approach: Because of QB question marks pick the Steelers to finish last in the division but don’t make the record unbelievably bad. That is because it won’t be, even if the offense flops a bit Mike Tomlin will steer this team to seven wins. Seven wins is the absolute floor for this team. The final prong of my Steelers approach: be unsurprised when the team rolls into December with seven to eight wins already under its belt and with a competent QB are competing for a playoff spot. This is an outcome that seems all too likely, I just want to see it from Kenny Pickett first, let’s not kid ourselves, Mitch isn’t getting a real shot in the burgh. The Steelers have the offensive weapons to be competitive and a defense led by a generational star in TJ Watt, who I’ve really come around on this off-season, give that man some respect.